33154 leans Republican by roughly 20 points: about 40% of voters vote Democratic and 60% Republican.
About 69% of adults in 33154 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 33154, ~28% vote Democratic, ~41% Republican, and ~31% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 33154 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 33154 leans more Republican than 48 of 60 neighbors.
33154 runs about 7 points more Republican than Florida as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 33154. The northeast side is the most Republican-leaning (R+28) and the northwest side is the least Republican-leaning (R+16), a spread of about 12 points.
Why 33154 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 33154, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
33154 votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 75%, well above the Florida average of 57%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here.
Walkability and Democratic lean
Places with a highly walkable street grid tend to lean Democratic; 33154, FL sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in 33154 looks the way it does
Areas with high high-school completion turn out at higher rates. About 98% of adults in 33154 have completed high school, about 9 points above the Florida average of 89%. Limited routine healthcare access lines up with lower turnout, and 33154 sits in the bottom quarter on routine-care measures. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Florida Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.