33781 leans slightly Republican by roughly 10 points: about 45% of voters vote Democratic and 55% Republican.
About 57% of adults in 33781 typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 33781, ~26% vote Democratic, ~31% Republican, and ~43% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 33781 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 33781 leans more Republican than 27 of 48 neighbors.
Politically, 33781 sits close to the rest of Florida.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 33781. The southwest side is the most Republican-leaning (R+17) and the southeast side is the least Republican-leaning (R+3), a spread of about 14 points.
Why 33781 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 33781, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
33781 votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 96%, far above the Florida average of 57%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here.
Never-married share, developed land, and voter turnout
Places that combine a never-married-heavy adult population and a heavily developed built environment tend to turn out at a lower rate, as 33781, FL does.
Why turnout in 33781 looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. 33781 is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 36% of households in 33781 rent, above 83% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Florida Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.