38017 leans Republican by roughly 20 points: about 40% of voters vote Democratic and 60% Republican.
About 80% of adults in 38017 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 38017, ~32% vote Democratic, ~48% Republican, and ~20% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 38017 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 38017 leans more Republican than 16 of 21 neighbors.
38017 runs about 9 points more Democratic than Tennessee as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 38017. The south side runs the most Democratic (D+18) and the northeast side runs the most Republican (R+38), a spread of about 57 points.
Why 38017 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 38017, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
38017 votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 67%, far above the Tennessee average of 21%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 78% of households in 38017 are family households, above 87% of zip codes.
Cancer-screening access and voter turnout
Places with high colon-cancer-screening access tend to turn out at a higher rate; 38017, TN sits above the national average on this measure. Cancer screening does not drive turnout; it reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access.
Why turnout in 38017 looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. 38017 is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 69%, about 9 points above the U.S. average of 60%. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 96% of adults in 38017 have completed high school, above 82% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Tennessee Secretary of State, Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.