38238 is a true toss-up. About 52% of voters here vote Democratic and 48% Republican.
About 33% of adults in 38238 typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 38238, ~17% vote Democratic, ~16% Republican, and ~67% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 38238 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 38238 is the most Democratic-leaning.
38238 runs about 33 points more Democratic than Tennessee as a whole. Tennessee leans Republican overall, while 38238 is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Why 38238 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 38238, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
38238 votes against the grain of Tennessee. Tennessee leans Republican overall, while 38238 runs about 33 points more Democratic.
Walkability and Democratic lean
Places with a highly walkable street grid tend to lean Democratic; 38238, TN sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in 38238 looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. 38238 is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 36%, about 20 points below the Tennessee average of 56%. Renters vote less often than owners, and more than 99% of households in 38238 rent, compared to around 30% in nearby zip codes. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 75% of adults in 38238 have completed high school, below 96% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Tennessee Secretary of State, Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.