78650 leans heavily Republican by roughly 48 points: about 26% of voters vote Democratic and 74% Republican.
About 68% of adults in 78650 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 78650, ~18% vote Democratic, ~51% Republican, and ~31% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 78650 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 78650 leans more Republican than 2 of 4 neighbors.
78650 runs about 34 points more Republican than Texas as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 78650. The northeast side is the most Republican-leaning (R+64) and the southwest side is the least Republican-leaning (R+21), a spread of about 43 points.
Why 78650 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 78650, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with many family households vote Republican. About 77% of households in 78650 are family households, about 11 points above the U.S. average of 67%.
Paved land cover and Republican lean
Places with little paved surface tend to lean Republican; 78650, TX sits below the national average on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in 78650 looks the way it does
Homeowners vote more often than renters. About 94% of households in 78650 own their home, about 19 points above the Texas average of 75%. Limited routine healthcare access lines up with lower turnout, and 78650 sits in the bottom quarter on routine-care measures. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Texas Secretary of State, Elections Division, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.