78653 leans Democratic by roughly 28 points: about 64% of voters vote Democratic and 36% Republican.
About 61% of adults in 78653 typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 78653, ~39% vote Democratic, ~22% Republican, and ~39% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 78653 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 78653 leans more Democratic than 6 of 29 neighbors.
78653 runs about 43 points more Democratic than Texas as a whole. Texas leans Republican overall, while 78653 is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 78653. The west side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+35) and the southeast side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+16), a spread of about 19 points.
Why 78653 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 78653, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
78653 votes against the grain of Texas. Texas leans Republican overall, while 78653 runs about 43 points more Democratic. A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 38% of adults in 78653 have never been married, above 84% of zip codes.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; 78653, TX sits above the national average on this measure.
Why turnout in 78653 looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. 78653 is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The uninsured rate here is about 20%, about 10 points above the U.S. average of 10%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Texas Secretary of State, Elections Division, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.