78946 leans heavily Republican by roughly 50 points: about 25% of voters vote Democratic and 75% Republican.
About 77% of adults in 78946 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 78946, ~19% vote Democratic, ~58% Republican, and ~23% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 78946 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 78946 leans more Republican than 2 of 6 neighbors.
78946 runs about 36 points more Republican than Texas as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 78946. The west side is the most Republican-leaning (R+64) and the northeast side is the least Republican-leaning (R+30), a spread of about 34 points.
Why 78946 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 78946, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Rural areas vote Republican. About 6% of residents in 78946 live in densely developed areas, about 29 points below the Texas average of 35%.
Population density and Republican lean
Places with low population density tend to lean Republican; 78946, TX sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in 78946 looks the way it does
Homeowners vote more often than renters. About 93% of households in 78946 own their home, about 18 points above the Texas average of 75%. Limited routine healthcare access lines up with lower turnout, and 78946 sits in the bottom quarter on routine-care measures. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Texas Secretary of State, Elections Division, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.