85013 leans heavily Democratic by roughly 32 points: about 66% of voters vote Democratic and 34% Republican.
About 58% of adults in 85013 typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 85013, ~38% vote Democratic, ~20% Republican, and ~42% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 85013 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 85013 leans more Democratic than 56 of 70 neighbors.
85013 runs about 38 points more Democratic than Arizona as a whole. Arizona leans Republican overall, while 85013 is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 85013. The east side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+39) and the north side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+19), a spread of about 20 points.
Why 85013 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 85013, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dense areas vote Democratic. More than 99% of residents in 85013 live in densely developed areas, about 64 points above the U.S. average of 36%. High college attainment predicts Democratic voting, and 85013 sits in the top quarter (about 45%, above 85% of zip codes). 85013 runs against the grain of Arizona, a Democratic-leaning pocket in a Republican-leaning state.
Paved land cover and Democratic lean
Places with extensive paved surfaces tend to lean Democratic; 85013, AZ sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in 85013 looks the way it does
Renters vote less often than owners. About 58% of households in 85013 rent, about 33 points above the U.S. average of 25%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.