85003 leans heavily Democratic by roughly 48 points: about 74% of voters vote Democratic and 26% Republican.
About 48% of adults in 85003 typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 85003, ~35% vote Democratic, ~13% Republican, and ~52% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 85003 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 85003 leans more Democratic than 62 of 63 neighbors.
85003 runs about 53 points more Democratic than Arizona as a whole. Arizona leans Republican overall, while 85003 is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 85003. The west side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+58) and the southwest side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+38), a spread of about 20 points.
Why 85003 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 85003, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dense areas vote Democratic. More than 99% of residents in 85003 live in densely developed areas, about 64 points above the U.S. average of 36%. High college attainment predicts Democratic voting, and 85003 sits in the top quarter (about 46%, above 86% of zip codes). 85003 runs against the grain of Arizona, a Democratic-leaning pocket in a Republican-leaning state.
Walkability and Democratic lean
Places with a highly walkable street grid tend to lean Democratic; 85003, AZ sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in 85003 looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. 85003 is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 75% of households in 85003 rent, compared to around 60% in nearby zip codes. High-crime urban areas turn out at lower rates, and 85003 sits in the top 15% on a violent-crime measure. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.