85053 leans slightly Republican by roughly 6 points: about 47% of voters vote Democratic and 53% Republican.
About 59% of adults in 85053 typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 85053, ~28% vote Democratic, ~31% Republican, and ~41% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 85053 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 85053 leans more Republican than 44 of 64 neighbors.
Politically, 85053 sits close to the rest of Arizona.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 85053. The north side runs the most Democratic (D+3) and the west side runs the most Republican (R+14), a spread of about 17 points.
Why 85053 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 85053, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
85053 votes Republican even though it is densely developed (more than 99%, far above the Arizona average of 39%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here.
Never-married share, developed land, and voter turnout
Places that combine a never-married-heavy adult population and a heavily developed built environment tend to turn out at a lower rate, as 85053, AZ does.
Why turnout in 85053 looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. 85053 is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 34% of households in 85053 rent, above 80% of zip codes. Crowded housing lines up with lower turnout, and about 4% of homes in 85053 have more than one occupant per room, above 83% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.