85302 is a true toss-up. About 50% of voters here vote Democratic and 50% Republican.
About 54% of adults in 85302 typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 85302, ~27% vote Democratic, ~27% Republican, and ~46% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 85302 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 85302 sits roughly in the middle of the political spectrum, with 26 neighbors leaning further in the place's direction and 40 leaning the other way.
85302 runs about 6 points more Democratic than Arizona as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 85302. The southwest side runs the most Democratic (D+11) and the northwest side runs the most Republican (R+11), a spread of about 23 points.
Why 85302 leans the way it does
Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in 85302. The lean here lands roughly where demographic data alone would predict.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; 85302, AZ sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in 85302 looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. 85302 is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 43% of households in 85302 rent, about 18 points above the U.S. average of 25%. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 21% of adults in 85302 report food insecurity, above 83% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.