85139 leans slightly Republican by roughly 12 points: about 44% of voters vote Democratic and 56% Republican.
About 59% of adults in 85139 typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 85139, ~26% vote Democratic, ~33% Republican, and ~41% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 85139 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 85139 leans more Republican than 4 of 5 neighbors.
85139 runs about 6 points more Republican than Arizona as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 85139. The east side runs the most Democratic (D+10) and the southwest side runs the most Republican (R+36), a spread of about 46 points.
Why 85139 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 85139, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with many family households vote Republican. About 78% of households in 85139 are family households, about 12 points above the U.S. average of 67%.
Cancer-screening access and voter turnout
Places with low colon-cancer-screening access tend to turn out at a lower rate; 85139, AZ sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Cancer screening does not drive turnout; it reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access.
Why turnout in 85139 looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. 85139 is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.