85173 leans slightly Democratic by roughly 8 points: about 54% of voters vote Democratic and 46% Republican.
About 64% of adults in 85173 typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 85173, ~34% vote Democratic, ~29% Republican, and ~37% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 85173 compares
85173 runs about 13 points more Democratic than Arizona as a whole. Arizona leans Republican overall, while 85173 is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 85173. The north side runs the most Democratic (D+11) and the northwest side runs the most Republican (R+41), a spread of about 52 points.
Why 85173 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 85173, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Density combined with diversity predicts Democratic voting. Non-Hispanic white share in 85173 is about 33%, about 39 points below the U.S. average of 72%. A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 35% of adults in 85173 have never been married, above 79% of zip codes. 85173 runs against the grain of Arizona, a Democratic-leaning pocket in a Republican-leaning state.
Paved land cover and Democratic lean
Places with extensive paved surfaces tend to lean Democratic; 85173, AZ sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in 85173 looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. 85173 is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.