85118 leans heavily Republican by roughly 30 points: about 35% of voters vote Democratic and 65% Republican.
About 81% of adults in 85118 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 85118, ~28% vote Democratic, ~53% Republican, and ~19% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 85118 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 85118 leans more Republican than 7 of 8 neighbors.
85118 runs about 25 points more Republican than Arizona as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 85118. The south side is the most Republican-leaning (R+44) and the north side is the least Republican-leaning (R+25), a spread of about 19 points.
Why 85118 leans the way it does
Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in 85118. The lean here lands roughly where demographic data alone would predict.
Cancer-screening access and voter turnout
Places with high colon-cancer-screening access tend to turn out at a higher rate; 85118, AZ sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. Cancer screening does not drive turnout; it reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access.
Why turnout in 85118 looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. 85118 is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 69%, about 9 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Homeowners vote more often than renters, and about 92% of households in 85118 own their home, about 17 points above the U.S. average of 75%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.