85203 is a true toss-up. About 49% of voters here vote Democratic and 51% Republican.
About 56% of adults in 85203 typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 85203, ~28% vote Democratic, ~29% Republican, and ~43% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 85203 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 85203 sits roughly in the middle of the political spectrum, with 25 neighbors leaning further in the place's direction and 22 leaning the other way.
Politically, 85203 sits close to the rest of Arizona.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 85203. The southwest side runs the most Democratic (D+8) and the northeast side runs the most Republican (R+19), a spread of about 27 points.
Why 85203 leans the way it does
Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in 85203. The lean here lands roughly where demographic data alone would predict.
High-school completion, developed land, and voter turnout
Places that combine low high-school-completion share and a heavily developed built environment tend to turn out at a lower rate, as 85203, AZ does.
Why turnout in 85203 looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. 85203 is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 41% of households in 85203 rent, about 16 points above the U.S. average of 25%. Crowded housing lines up with lower turnout, and about 9% of homes in 85203 have more than one occupant per room, above 95% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.