85204 is a true toss-up. About 52% of voters here vote Democratic and 48% Republican.
About 49% of adults in 85204 typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 85204, ~25% vote Democratic, ~24% Republican, and ~51% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 85204 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 85204 leans more Democratic than 24 of 43 neighbors.
85204 runs about 10 points more Democratic than Arizona as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 85204. The west side runs the most Democratic (D+18) and the east side runs the most Republican (R+13), a spread of about 30 points.
Why 85204 leans the way it does
Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in 85204. The lean here lands roughly where demographic data alone would predict.
Paved land cover and Democratic lean
Places with extensive paved surfaces tend to lean Democratic; 85204, AZ sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in 85204 looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. 85204 is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 43% of households in 85204 rent, about 18 points above the U.S. average of 25%. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 24% of adults in 85204 report food insecurity, above 87% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.