85395 leans slightly Republican by roughly 8 points: about 46% of voters vote Democratic and 54% Republican.
About 76% of adults in 85395 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 85395, ~35% vote Democratic, ~41% Republican, and ~24% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 85395 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 85395 leans more Republican than 19 of 34 neighbors.
Politically, 85395 sits close to the rest of Arizona.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 85395. The southwest side runs the most Democratic (Even) and the northwest side runs the most Republican (R+27), a spread of about 29 points.
Why 85395 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 85395, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
85395 votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 81%, far above the Arizona average of 39%). Here an older population outweighs the Democratic lean that density usually predicts. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 74% of households in 85395 are family households, above 75% of zip codes.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; 85395, AZ sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in 85395 looks the way it does
Turnout in 85395 sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.