85338 leans slightly Republican by roughly 8 points: about 46% of voters vote Democratic and 54% Republican.
About 69% of adults in 85338 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 85338, ~32% vote Democratic, ~37% Republican, and ~31% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 85338 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 85338 leans more Republican than 14 of 21 neighbors.
Politically, 85338 sits close to the rest of Arizona.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 85338. The northeast side runs the most Democratic (D+7) and the southeast side runs the most Republican (R+29), a spread of about 36 points.
Why 85338 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 85338, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
85338 votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 73%, far above the Arizona average of 39%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 77% of households in 85338 are family households, above 85% of zip codes.
Paved land cover and Democratic lean
Places with extensive paved surfaces tend to lean Democratic; 85338, AZ sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in 85338 looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. 85338 is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.