85611 leans Republican by roughly 16 points: about 42% of voters vote Democratic and 58% Republican.
About 62% of adults in 85611 typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 85611, ~26% vote Democratic, ~36% Republican, and ~38% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 85611 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 85611 leans more Republican than 2 of 4 neighbors.
85611 runs about 10 points more Republican than Arizona as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 85611. The northeast side is the most Republican-leaning (R+34) and the west side is the least Republican-leaning (R+11), a spread of about 23 points.
Why 85611 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 85611, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Rural areas vote Republican. About 2% of residents in 85611 live in densely developed areas, about 37 points below the Arizona average of 39%.
Paved land cover and Republican lean
Places with little paved surface tend to lean Republican; 85611, AZ sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in 85611 looks the way it does
Turnout in 85611 sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.