85648 leans slightly Democratic by roughly 10 points: about 55% of voters vote Democratic and 45% Republican.
About 69% of adults in 85648 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 85648, ~38% vote Democratic, ~31% Republican, and ~31% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 85648 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 85648 leans more Democratic than 2 of 3 neighbors.
85648 runs about 16 points more Democratic than Arizona as a whole. Arizona leans Republican overall, while 85648 is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 85648. The west side runs the most Democratic (D+14) and the north side runs the most Republican (Even), a spread of about 15 points.
Why 85648 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 85648, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
85648 votes against the grain of Arizona. Arizona leans Republican overall, while 85648 runs about 16 points more Democratic.
Non-English at home and voter turnout
Places with a low non-English-at-home share tend to turn out at a higher rate; 85648, AZ sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in 85648 looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. 85648 is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 50%, about 10 points below the U.S. average of 60%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.