85618 is a true toss-up. About 51% of voters here vote Democratic and 49% Republican.
About 72% of adults in 85618 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 85618, ~37% vote Democratic, ~35% Republican, and ~28% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 85618 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 85618 sits roughly in the middle of the political spectrum, with 2 neighbors leaning further in the place's direction and 0 leaning the other way.
85618 runs about 7 points more Democratic than Arizona as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 85618. The north side runs the most Democratic (D+6) and the southeast side runs the most Republican (R+12), a spread of about 18 points.
Why 85618 leans the way it does
Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in 85618. The lean here lands roughly where demographic data alone would predict.
Homeownership and voter turnout
Places with homeowner-heavy households tend to turn out at a higher rate; 85618, AZ sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in 85618 looks the way it does
Homeowners vote more often than renters. About 90% of households in 85618 own their home, about 17 points above the Arizona average of 73%. Limited routine healthcare access lines up with lower turnout, and 85618 sits in the bottom quarter on routine-care measures. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.