85619 leans slightly Republican by roughly 8 points: about 46% of voters vote Democratic and 54% Republican.
About 50% of adults in 85619 typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 85619, ~23% vote Democratic, ~27% Republican, and ~50% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 85619 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 85619 leans more Republican than 6 of 9 neighbors.
Politically, 85619 sits close to the rest of Arizona.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 85619. The northwest side runs the most Democratic (D+6) and the southeast side runs the most Republican (R+10), a spread of about 16 points.
Why 85619 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 85619, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Rural areas vote Republican. Fewer than 1% of residents in 85619 live in densely developed areas, about 38 points below the Arizona average of 39%. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 77% of households in 85619 are family households, above 85% of zip codes.
Population density and Republican lean
Places with low population density tend to lean Republican; 85619, AZ sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in 85619 looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. 85619 is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 72%, about 12 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.