85641 leans Republican by roughly 22 points: about 39% of voters vote Democratic and 61% Republican.
About 84% of adults in 85641 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 85641, ~33% vote Democratic, ~51% Republican, and ~16% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 85641 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 85641 is the most Republican-leaning.
85641 runs about 16 points more Republican than Arizona as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 85641. The southeast side is the most Republican-leaning (R+47) and the northwest side is the least Republican-leaning (R+5), a spread of about 42 points.
Why 85641 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 85641, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with many family households vote Republican. About 83% of households in 85641 are family households, about 17 points above the U.S. average of 67%.
Walkability and Republican lean
Places with a low walkability score tend to lean Republican; 85641, AZ sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in 85641 looks the way it does
Homeowners vote more often than renters. About 93% of households in 85641 own their home, about 21 points above the Arizona average of 73%. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 97% of adults in 85641 have completed high school, above 86% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.