85712 leans heavily Democratic by roughly 32 points: about 66% of voters vote Democratic and 34% Republican.
About 60% of adults in 85712 typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 85712, ~40% vote Democratic, ~20% Republican, and ~40% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 85712 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 85712 leans more Democratic than 21 of 29 neighbors.
85712 runs about 38 points more Democratic than Arizona as a whole. Arizona leans Republican overall, while 85712 is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Why 85712 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 85712, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dense areas vote Democratic. About 97% of residents in 85712 live in densely developed areas, about 61 points above the U.S. average of 36%. High college attainment predicts Democratic voting, and 85712 sits in the top quarter (about 37%, above 77% of zip codes). 85712 runs against the grain of Arizona, a Democratic-leaning pocket in a Republican-leaning state.
Paved land cover and Democratic lean
Places with extensive paved surfaces tend to lean Democratic; 85712, AZ sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in 85712 looks the way it does
Renters vote less often than owners. About 56% of households in 85712 rent, about 32 points above the U.S. average of 25%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.