85716 leans heavily Democratic by roughly 42 points: about 71% of voters vote Democratic and 29% Republican.
About 56% of adults in 85716 typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 85716, ~40% vote Democratic, ~16% Republican, and ~44% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 85716 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 85716 leans more Democratic than 28 of 32 neighbors.
85716 runs about 48 points more Democratic than Arizona as a whole. Arizona leans Republican overall, while 85716 is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 85716. The west side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+60) and the northeast side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+34), a spread of about 26 points.
Why 85716 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 85716, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dense areas vote Democratic. More than 99% of residents in 85716 live in densely developed areas, about 64 points above the U.S. average of 36%. High college attainment predicts Democratic voting, and 85716 sits in the top quarter (about 42%, above 82% of zip codes). 85716 runs against the grain of Arizona, a Democratic-leaning pocket in a Republican-leaning state.
Paved land cover and Democratic lean
Places with extensive paved surfaces tend to lean Democratic; 85716, AZ sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in 85716 looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. 85716 is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 61% of households in 85716 rent, about 36 points above the U.S. average of 25%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.