86021 is a Republican stronghold. About 21% of voters here vote Democratic and 79% Republican.
About 65% of adults in 86021 typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 86021, ~14% vote Democratic, ~51% Republican, and ~35% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 86021 compares
86021 sits in a sparsely populated area with few comparable zip codes nearby.
86021 runs about 52 points more Republican than Arizona as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 86021. The southwest side is the most Republican-leaning (R+72) and the north side is the least Republican-leaning (R+43), a spread of about 29 points.
Why 86021 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 86021, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with many family households vote Republican. About 92% of households in 86021 are family households, about 26 points above the U.S. average of 67%. Car-dependent areas vote Republican, and about 83% of residents in 86021 drive to work alone, above 82% of zip codes.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with limited routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a lower rate; 86021, AZ sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in 86021 looks the way it does
Limited routine healthcare access lines up with lower turnout, and 86021 sits in the bottom quarter on routine-care measures. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.