86404 leans heavily Republican by roughly 40 points: about 30% of voters vote Democratic and 70% Republican.
About 76% of adults in 86404 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 86404, ~23% vote Democratic, ~54% Republican, and ~23% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 86404 compares
86404 sits in a sparsely populated area with few comparable zip codes nearby.
86404 runs about 34 points more Republican than Arizona as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 86404. The northeast side is the most Republican-leaning (R+55) and the southwest side is the least Republican-leaning (R+30), a spread of about 25 points.
Why 86404 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 86404, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
86404 votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 72%, far above the Arizona average of 39%). Here an older population outweighs the Democratic lean that density usually predicts.
Paved land cover and Democratic lean
Places with extensive paved surfaces tend to lean Democratic; 86404, AZ sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in 86404 looks the way it does
Turnout in 86404 sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.