95315 is a true toss-up. About 48% of voters here vote Democratic and 52% Republican.
About 39% of adults in 95315 typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 95315, ~19% vote Democratic, ~20% Republican, and ~61% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 95315 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 95315 leans more Republican than 1 of 15 neighbors.
95315 runs about 24 points more Republican than California as a whole. California leans Democratic overall, while 95315 is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 95315. The west side runs the most Democratic (D+4) and the northeast side runs the most Republican (R+30), a spread of about 34 points.
Why 95315 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 95315, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
95315 votes against the grain of California. California leans Democratic overall, while 95315 runs about 24 points more Republican.
High-school completion, developed land, and voter turnout
Places that combine low high-school-completion share and a heavily developed built environment tend to turn out at a lower rate, as 95315, CA does.
Why turnout in 95315 looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. 95315 is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The uninsured rate here is about 21%, about 10 points above the California average of 10%. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 30% of adults in 95315 report food insecurity, above 94% of zip codes. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 69% of adults in 95315 have completed high school, below 98% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.