23511 leans Democratic by roughly 26 points: about 63% of voters vote Democratic and 37% Republican.
About 38% of adults in 23511 typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 23511, ~24% vote Democratic, ~14% Republican, and ~62% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 23511 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 23511 leans more Democratic than 24 of 50 neighbors.
23511 runs about 20 points more Democratic than Virginia as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 23511. The east side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+27) and the south side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+16), a spread of about 10 points.
Why 23511 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 23511, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with many never-married adults vote Democratic. About 74% of adults in 23511 have never been married, far above similar-sized zip codes (around 34%). Density combined with diversity predicts Democratic voting, and non-Hispanic white share in 23511 is about 53%, about 19 points below the U.S. average of 72%.
Cancer-screening access and voter turnout
Places with low colon-cancer-screening access tend to turn out at a lower rate; 23511, VA sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Cancer screening does not drive turnout; it reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access.
Why turnout in 23511 looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. 23511 is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Renters vote less often than owners, and more than 99% of households in 23511 rent, compared to around 64% in nearby zip codes. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and more than 99% of adults in 23511 have completed high school, above 98% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Virginia Department of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.