95612 leans slightly Republican by roughly 10 points: about 45% of voters vote Democratic and 55% Republican.
About 38% of adults in 95612 typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 95612, ~17% vote Democratic, ~21% Republican, and ~62% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 95612 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 95612 leans more Republican than 25 of 27 neighbors.
95612 runs about 29 points more Republican than California as a whole. California leans Democratic overall, while 95612 is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why 95612 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 95612, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Rural areas vote Republican. About 3% of residents in 95612 live in densely developed areas, about 54 points below the California average of 58%. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 88% of households in 95612 are family households, in the top fraction of zip codes. 95612 runs against the grain of California, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Population density, never-married share, and Republican lean
Places that combine low population density and a never-married-heavy adult population tend to lean Republican, as 95612, CA does.
Why turnout in 95612 looks the way it does
Renters vote less often than owners. About 57% of households in 95612 rent, about 32 points above the U.S. average of 25%. Strong routine healthcare access lines up with higher turnout, and 95612 sits in the top quarter on routine-care measures. Crowded housing lines up with lower turnout, and about 21% of homes in 95612 have more than one occupant per room, in the top fraction of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.