95615 leans slightly Republican by roughly 6 points: about 47% of voters vote Democratic and 53% Republican.
About 49% of adults in 95615 typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 95615, ~23% vote Democratic, ~26% Republican, and ~51% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 95615 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 95615 leans more Republican than 10 of 16 neighbors.
95615 runs about 26 points more Republican than California as a whole. California leans Democratic overall, while 95615 is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 95615. The southwest side is the most split-leaning (R+20) and the northeast side is the least split-leaning (Even), a spread of about 19 points.
Why 95615 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 95615, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Rural areas vote Republican. About 5% of residents in 95615 live in densely developed areas, about 52 points below the California average of 58%. 95615 runs against the grain of California, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Developed land and Republican lean
Places with a rural land-use pattern tend to lean Republican; 95615, CA sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. Developed land does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in 95615 looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. 95615 is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 43% of households in 95615 rent, about 18 points above the U.S. average of 25%. Crowded housing lines up with lower turnout, and about 6% of homes in 95615 have more than one occupant per room, above 91% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.