95916 leans heavily Republican by roughly 30 points: about 35% of voters vote Democratic and 65% Republican.
About 67% of adults in 95916 typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 95916, ~24% vote Democratic, ~44% Republican, and ~32% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 95916 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 95916 is the most Republican-leaning.
95916 runs about 50 points more Republican than California as a whole. California leans Democratic overall, while 95916 is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 95916. The south side is the most Republican-leaning (R+33) and the north side is the least Republican-leaning (R+22), a spread of about 12 points.
Why 95916 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 95916, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with low college attainment vote Republican. About 11% of adults in 95916 hold a bachelor's degree, about 24 points below the California average of 35%. Rural areas vote Republican, and 95916 sits in the bottom quarter on density (about 5%, below 85% of zip codes). 95916 runs against the grain of California, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Population density and Republican lean
Places with low population density tend to lean Republican; 95916, CA sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in 95916 looks the way it does
Turnout in 95916 sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.