96040 leans heavily Republican by roughly 44 points: about 28% of voters vote Democratic and 72% Republican.
About 71% of adults in 96040 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 96040, ~20% vote Democratic, ~51% Republican, and ~29% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 96040 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 96040 leans more Republican than 2 of 3 neighbors.
96040 runs about 64 points more Republican than California as a whole. California leans Democratic overall, while 96040 is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why 96040 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 96040, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
96040 votes against the grain of California. California leans Democratic overall, while 96040 runs about 64 points more Republican. Rural areas with a high white share vote Republican. Non-Hispanic white share in 96040 is about 96%, about 24 points above the U.S. average of 72%.
Paved land cover and Republican lean
Places with little paved surface tend to lean Republican; 96040, CA sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in 96040 looks the way it does
Homeowners vote more often than renters. About 92% of households in 96040 own their home, about 30 points above the California average of 62%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.