Adair County leans Republican by roughly 20 points: about 40% of voters vote Democratic and 60% Republican.
About 64% of adults in Adair County typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Adair County, ~26% vote Democratic, ~38% Republican, and ~36% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Adair County compares
Among counties within 50 miles, Adair County is the least Republican-leaning.
Politically, Adair County sits close to the rest of Missouri.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Adair County. The northwest side is the most Republican-leaning (R+57) and the north side is the least Republican-leaning (R+23), a spread of about 34 points.
Why Adair County leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Adair County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Adair County votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 49%, well above the Missouri average of 22%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here.
High-school completion and voter turnout
Places with high-school-completion-heavy adults tend to turn out at a higher rate; Adair County, MO sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Adair County looks the way it does
Areas with high high-school completion turn out at higher rates. About 94% of adults in Adair County have completed high school, above 87% of counties. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Schuyler County, MO R+67
- Knox County, MO R+66
- Sullivan County, MO R+56
- Macon County, MO R+57
- Scotland County, MO R+64
- Putnam County, MO R+68
- Linn County, MO R+55
- Davis County, IA R+59
- Shelby County, MO R+65
- Appanoose County, IA R+43
Counties with Similar Populations
- Washington County, FL R+61
- Fannin County, GA R+62
- Hardee County, FL R+46
- Salem City, VA R+21
- Pottawatomie County, KS R+46
- Lyon County, MN R+28
- Todd County, MN R+50
- Gladwin County, MI R+42
- Payette County, ID R+57
- Iosco County, MI R+28
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Missouri Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.