Bagdad is a Republican stronghold. About 23% of voters here vote Democratic and 77% Republican.
About 36% of adults in Bagdad typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Bagdad, ~8% vote Democratic, ~27% Republican, and ~65% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Bagdad compares
Bagdad runs about 49 points more Republican than Arizona as a whole.
Why Bagdad leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Bagdad, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with many family households vote Republican. About 78% of households in Bagdad are family households, about 12 points above the U.S. average of 67%.
Population density and Republican lean
Places with low population density tend to lean Republican; Bagdad, AZ sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Bagdad looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Bagdad is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 88% of households in Bagdad rent, compared to around 13% in nearby cities. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 97% of adults in Bagdad have completed high school, above 92% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Skull Valley, AZ R+66
- Wikieup, AZ R+53
- Peeples Valley, AZ R+51
- Kirkland, AZ R+55
- Kirkland Junction, AZ R+54
- Yarnell, AZ R+51
- Wilhoit, AZ R+54
- Date, AZ R+54
- Congress, AZ R+52
- Williamson, AZ R+39
Cities with Similar Populations
- Fountain, NC R+25
- Thrall, TX R+51
- Rogers, TX R+59
- Toledo, IL R+61
- Moncure, NC R+17
- Letha, ID R+69
- Bay, AR R+64
- Fancy Farm, KY R+67
- Tustin, MI R+50
- Rock Creek, OH R+50
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.