Bay is a Republican stronghold. About 18% of voters here vote Democratic and 82% Republican.
About 50% of adults in Bay typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Bay, ~9% vote Democratic, ~41% Republican, and ~50% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Bay compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Bay leans more Republican than 25 of 64 neighbors.
Bay runs about 34 points more Republican than Arkansas as a whole.
Why Bay leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Bay, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Car-dependent areas vote Republican. About 87% of residents in Bay drive to work alone, about 13 points above the U.S. average of 74%. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 78% of households in Bay are family households, above 86% of cities.
Homeownership and voter turnout
Places with renter-heavy households tend to turn out at a lower rate; Bay, AR sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Bay looks the way it does
Renters vote less often than owners. About 40% of households in Bay rent, about 15 points above the U.S. average of 25%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Hergett, AR R+59
- Stacy, AR R+54
- Shady Grove, AR R+74
- Elm Grove, AR R+65
- Lunsford, AR R+68
- Needham, AR R+58
- Trumann, AR R+51
- Maple Grove, AR R+62
- Promised Land, AR R+72
- Tulot, AR R+56
Cities with Similar Populations
- Moncure, NC R+17
- Rogers, TX R+59
- Bagdad, AZ R+55
- Grant Park, IL R+40
- Scio, OH R+58
- Sebeka, MN R+58
- Fountain, NC R+25
- Thrall, TX R+51
- Letha, ID R+69
- Toledo, IL R+61
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arkansas Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.