Baileyville leans heavily Republican by roughly 46 points: about 27% of voters vote Democratic and 73% Republican.
About 94% of adults in Baileyville typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Baileyville, ~25% vote Democratic, ~69% Republican, and ~6% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Baileyville compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Baileyville leans more Republican than 55 of 61 neighbors.
Baileyville runs about 57 points more Republican than Illinois as a whole. Illinois leans Democratic overall, while Baileyville is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why Baileyville leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Baileyville, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Car-dependent areas vote Republican. About 91% of residents in Baileyville drive to work alone, about 17 points above the U.S. average of 74%. Baileyville runs against the grain of Illinois, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Walkability and Republican lean
Places with a low walkability score tend to lean Republican; Baileyville, IL sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Baileyville looks the way it does
Homeowners vote more often than renters. About 93% of households in Baileyville own their home, about 14 points above the Illinois average of 80%. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 98% of adults in Baileyville have completed high school, above 96% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Florence, IL R+38
- Forreston, IL R+42
- German Valley, IL R+45
- Harper, IL R+48
- Freeport, IL D+3
- Egan, IL R+41
- Ridott, IL R+44
- Shannon, IL R+35
- Leaf River, IL R+39
Cities with Similar Populations
- Wannaska, MN R+52
- Saunemin, IL R+57
- Fort Monmouth, NJ R+6
- Ranier, MN R+27
- Lydia, LA R+53
- Mooresburg, PA R+41
- Jacksonville, ME R+30
- Elk, TX R+68
- Lena, LA R+69
- Paradise Valley, PA R+23
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Illinois State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.