Leaf River leans heavily Republican by roughly 40 points: about 30% of voters vote Democratic and 70% Republican.
About 76% of adults in Leaf River typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Leaf River, ~23% vote Democratic, ~53% Republican, and ~24% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Leaf River compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Leaf River leans more Republican than 41 of 66 neighbors.
Leaf River runs about 50 points more Republican than Illinois as a whole. Illinois leans Democratic overall, while Leaf River is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Leaf River. The northwest side is the most Republican-leaning (R+47) and the east side is the least Republican-leaning (R+33), a spread of about 13 points.
Why Leaf River leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Leaf River, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Car-dependent areas vote Republican. About 85% of residents in Leaf River drive to work alone, about 11 points above the U.S. average of 74%. Leaf River runs against the grain of Illinois, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Walkability and Republican lean
Places with a low walkability score tend to lean Republican; Leaf River, IL sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Leaf River looks the way it does
Turnout in Leaf River sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Egan, IL R+41
- German Valley, IL R+45
- Myrtle, IL R+35
- Mount Morris, IL R+25
- Maryland, IL R+49
- Byron, IL R+26
- Seward, IL R+46
- Forreston, IL R+42
Cities with Similar Populations
- Watersmeet, MI R+12
- Patton Village, TX R+50
- Yalaha, FL R+41
- Atwood, IN R+56
- Diggins, MO R+71
- Hornbeak, TN R+73
- Erin, TX R+48
- Hunters Creek, MI R+36
- Wesley, AR R+60
- New Amsterdam, WI R+16
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Illinois State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.