Bay Shore, NY Political Map | Democrat & Republican Areas in Bay Shore

By the BestNeighborhood data science team. Last updated May 2026.

Bay Shore leans slightly Democratic by roughly 6 points: about 53% of voters vote Democratic and 47% Republican.

 

About 60% of adults in Bay Shore typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Bay Shore, ~32% vote Democratic, ~28% Republican, and ~40% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.

How Bay Shore compares

Among cities within 25 miles, Bay Shore leans more Democratic than 163 of 205 neighbors.

Bay Shore runs about 6 points more Republican than New York as a whole.

Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Bay Shore. The north side runs the most Democratic (D+24) and the southwest side runs the most Republican (R+21), a spread of about 45 points.

Why Bay Shore leans the way it does

This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Bay Shore, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.

Dense areas vote Democratic. About 96% of residents in Bay Shore live in densely developed areas, about 59 points above the U.S. average of 36%. High college attainment predicts Democratic voting, and Bay Shore sits in the top quarter (about 33%, above 79% of cities). A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 38% of adults in Bay Shore have never been married, above 92% of cities.

Population density and Democratic lean

Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Bay Shore, NY sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.

Why turnout in Bay Shore looks the way it does

Crowded housing lines up with lower turnout. About 7% of homes in Bay Shore have more than one occupant per room, above 93% of cities. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 86% of adults in Bay Shore have completed high school, below 76% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.

Sources and methodology

Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New York State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.

Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.

Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.