Byrnes Mill leans heavily Republican by roughly 40 points: about 30% of voters vote Democratic and 70% Republican.
About 84% of adults in Byrnes Mill typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Byrnes Mill, ~25% vote Democratic, ~59% Republican, and ~16% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Byrnes Mill compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Byrnes Mill leans more Republican than 105 of 151 neighbors.
Byrnes Mill runs about 22 points more Republican than Missouri as a whole.
Why Byrnes Mill leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Byrnes Mill, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Byrnes Mill votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 43%, well above the Missouri average of 22%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here.
Frequent mental distress and voter turnout
Places with a low frequent-mental-distress rate tend to turn out at a higher rate; Byrnes Mill, MO sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Reported mental distress does not drive turnout; it reflects economic and health conditions tied to voting.
Why turnout in Byrnes Mill looks the way it does
Turnout in Byrnes Mill sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- House Springs, MO R+45
- Scotsdale, MO R+45
- High Ridge, MO R+36
- Parkdale, MO R+40
- Eureka, MO R+25
- Times Beach, MO R+29
- Murphy, MO R+32
- Cedar Hill, MO R+49
- Fenton, MO R+18
Cities with Similar Populations
- Double Oak, TX R+38
- Whitehall, WI R+26
- Johnson City, TX R+49
- Butler, GA R+3
- Canadian, TX R+64
- Julian, CA R+7
- Waterloo, NE R+34
- Liverpool, PA R+55
- Ashaway, RI R+11
- Hanover, VA R+26
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Missouri Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.