Caldwell is a true toss-up. About 51% of voters here vote Democratic and 49% Republican.
About 77% of adults in Caldwell typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Caldwell, ~39% vote Democratic, ~38% Republican, and ~23% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Caldwell compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Caldwell sits roughly in the middle of the political spectrum, with 145 neighbors leaning further in the place's direction and 133 leaning the other way.
Politically, Caldwell sits close to the rest of New Jersey.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Caldwell. The south side runs the most Democratic (D+16) and the northwest side runs the most Republican (R+9), a spread of about 25 points.
Why Caldwell leans the way it does
Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in Caldwell. The lean here lands roughly where demographic data alone would predict.
Walkability and Democratic lean
Places with a highly walkable street grid tend to lean Democratic; Caldwell, NJ sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Caldwell looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Caldwell is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 75%, about 15 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Essex Fells, NJ Even
- North Caldwell, NJ R+2
- Roseland, NJ Even
- Verona, NJ D+15
- Fairfield, NJ R+38
- Cedar Grove, NJ R+7
- Pine Brook, NJ Even
- Little Falls, NJ Even
- Montclair, NJ D+73
- West Orange, NJ D+51
Cities with Similar Populations
- Riverton, NJ D+10
- Bayou Cane, LA R+47
- Greenfield, CA D+28
- Hatfield, PA D+5
- Westwood, NJ D+3
- Radford, VA R+7
- Homewood, IL D+60
- Kirksville, MO R+9
- Chehalis, WA R+27
- East Amherst, NY D+6
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New Jersey Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.