Carl Junction leans heavily Republican by roughly 48 points: about 26% of voters vote Democratic and 74% Republican.
About 89% of adults in Carl Junction typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Carl Junction, ~23% vote Democratic, ~66% Republican, and ~11% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Carl Junction compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Carl Junction leans more Republican than 17 of 84 neighbors.
Carl Junction runs about 29 points more Republican than Missouri as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Carl Junction. The northeast side is the most Republican-leaning (R+59) and the southeast side is the least Republican-leaning (R+39), a spread of about 19 points.
Why Carl Junction leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Carl Junction, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Carl Junction votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 38%, well above the Missouri average of 22%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here.
High-school completion and voter turnout
Places with high-school-completion-heavy adults tend to turn out at a higher rate; Carl Junction, MO sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Carl Junction looks the way it does
Areas with high high-school completion turn out at higher rates. About 97% of adults in Carl Junction have completed high school, about 7 points above the Missouri average of 89%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Airport Drive, MO R+44
- Webb City, MO R+40
- Oronogo, MO R+62
- Carterville, MO R+51
- Joplin, MO R+33
- Empire City, KS R+61
- Purcell, MO R+70
- Galena, KS R+55
Cities with Similar Populations
- Lonoke, AR R+47
- Center Valley, PA Even
- Deer Park, WA R+38
- Fort Scott, KS R+41
- Forestdale, AL D+72
- Lambertville, MI R+25
- Princeton, IN R+41
- Succasunna, NJ R+16
- Greensboro, GA R+14
- Commerce, TX R+7
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Missouri Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.