Carterville is a Republican stronghold. About 25% of voters here vote Democratic and 75% Republican.
About 73% of adults in Carterville typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Carterville, ~18% vote Democratic, ~55% Republican, and ~27% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Carterville compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Carterville leans more Republican than 17 of 82 neighbors.
Carterville runs about 32 points more Republican than Missouri as a whole.
Why Carterville leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Carterville, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Carterville votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 42%, well above the Missouri average of 22%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here. Low college attainment predicts Republican voting, and Carterville sits in the bottom quarter (about 11%, below 91% of cities).
Paved land cover and Democratic lean
Places with extensive paved surfaces tend to lean Democratic; Carterville, MO sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in Carterville looks the way it does
Turnout in Carterville sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Webb City, MO R+40
- Prosperity, MO R+59
- Brooklyn Heights, MO R+61
- Airport Drive, MO R+44
- Oronogo, MO R+62
- Duquesne, MO R+39
- Duenweg, MO R+54
- Purcell, MO R+70
- Alba, MO R+70
- Carl Junction, MO R+47
Cities with Similar Populations
- Middleborough, MA R+17
- Iron City, TN R+75
- Shamokin Dam, PA R+36
- Fombell, PA R+46
- Pages Corner, NH R+8
- Tchula, MS D+77
- Cecil, GA R+56
- Boaz, KY R+67
- Pearl River, MS D+12
- Abbeville, MS R+14
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Missouri Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.