Carlisle leans heavily Republican by roughly 44 points: about 28% of voters vote Democratic and 72% Republican.
About 83% of adults in Carlisle typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Carlisle, ~23% vote Democratic, ~60% Republican, and ~17% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Carlisle compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Carlisle leans more Republican than 48 of 57 neighbors.
Carlisle runs about 42 points more Republican than Michigan as a whole.
Why Carlisle leans the way it does
Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in Carlisle. The lean here lands roughly where demographic data alone would predict.
Walkability and Republican lean
Places with a low walkability score tend to lean Republican; Carlisle, MI sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Carlisle looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Carlisle is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 72%, about 12 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Homeowners vote more often than renters, and about 92% of households in Carlisle own their home, about 17 points above the U.S. average of 75%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Chester, MI R+41
- Vermontville, MI R+43
- Charlotte, MI R+28
- Gresham, MI R+42
- Olivet, MI R+35
- Bellevue, MI R+43
- Nashville, MI R+39
- Needmore, MI R+37
- Partello, MI R+47
- Potterville, MI R+28
Cities with Similar Populations
- Spurlockville, WV R+69
- Mount Calm, TX R+66
- Lewis, IA R+49
- Hawk Cove, TX R+60
- Witter Springs, CA R+7
- Burton Lake, OH R+39
- Kukui, HI D+27
- Hunnewell, KY R+59
- Cankton, LA R+66
- Brumley, MO R+68
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Michigan Department of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.