Carlisle leans heavily Democratic by roughly 38 points: about 69% of voters vote Democratic and 31% Republican.
About 61% of adults in Carlisle typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Carlisle, ~42% vote Democratic, ~19% Republican, and ~39% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Carlisle compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Carlisle leans more Democratic than 53 of 56 neighbors.
Carlisle runs about 57 points more Democratic than South Carolina as a whole. South Carolina leans Republican overall, while Carlisle is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Carlisle. The east side runs the most Democratic (D+65) and the northeast side runs the most Republican (Even), a spread of about 66 points.
Why Carlisle leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Carlisle, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Rural, majority-Black areas of the Southern Black Belt vote Democratic, against the usual rural pattern. About 68% of residents in Carlisle are Black or African American, about 38 points above the South Carolina average of 30%. A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 42% of adults in Carlisle have never been married, above 95% of cities. Carlisle runs against the grain of South Carolina, a Democratic-leaning pocket in a Republican-leaning state.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with limited routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a lower rate; Carlisle, SC sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in Carlisle looks the way it does
Areas with high food insecurity turn out at lower rates. About 26% of adults in Carlisle report food insecurity, about 9 points above the U.S. average of 16%. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 78% of adults in Carlisle have completed high school, below 93% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Leeds, SC Even
- South Hills, SC R+28
- Tuckertown, SC D+12
- Clayton, SC D+40
- Baton Rouge, SC R+38
- Whitmire, SC R+26
- Monarch, SC R+18
- Union, SC R+17
- Wilksburg, SC R+19
Cities with Similar Populations
- Old Albertville, WI R+32
- Taymouth, MI R+34
- Bushwood, MD R+27
- Southside, TN R+65
- Studley, VA R+29
- Mechanicsburg, VA R+64
- Avondale, CO R+35
- Union Center, WI R+36
- Eastmanville, MI R+40
- Rocky Ridge, UT R+84
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from South Carolina State Election Commission, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.