Carlton Hill leans Republican by roughly 16 points: about 42% of voters vote Democratic and 58% Republican.
About 58% of adults in Carlton Hill typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Carlton Hill, ~24% vote Democratic, ~33% Republican, and ~43% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Carlton Hill compares
Among neighborhoods within 5 miles, Carlton Hill leans more Republican than 7 of 8 neighbors.
Carlton Hill runs about 22 points more Republican than New Jersey as a whole. New Jersey leans Democratic overall, while Carlton Hill is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within Carlton Hill. The east side is the most split-leaning (R+35) and the southwest side is the least split-leaning (Even), a spread of about 34 points.
Why Carlton Hill leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per neighborhood to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Carlton Hill, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Carlton Hill votes Republican even though it is densely developed (more than 99%, far above the New Jersey average of 61%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here. Carlton Hill runs against the grain of New Jersey, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Paved land cover and Democratic lean
Places with extensive paved surfaces tend to lean Democratic; Carlton Hill, Wallington, NJ sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in Carlton Hill looks the way it does
Turnout in Carlton Hill sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Neighborhoods
Neighborhoods with Similar Populations
- Palisades, Lake Oswego, OR D+39
- Sharon Woods, Charlotte, NC D+12
- Northrup, Minneapolis, MN D+77
- Carriage Square, Oxnard, CA D+35
- South Marketview Heights, Rochester, NY D+70
- Roundhill, Roanoke, VA D+13
- Silver City, Milwaukee, WI D+38
- Arlington Heights, Riverside, CA R+8
- Schenk-Atwood-Starkweather-Yahar, Madison, WI D+85
- Lower Village District, Claremont, NH R+13
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New Jersey Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.