Carlyle leans heavily Republican by roughly 40 points: about 30% of voters vote Democratic and 70% Republican.
About 79% of adults in Carlyle typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Carlyle, ~24% vote Democratic, ~55% Republican, and ~21% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Carlyle compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Carlyle leans more Republican than 7 of 66 neighbors.
Carlyle runs about 51 points more Republican than Illinois as a whole. Illinois leans Democratic overall, while Carlyle is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Carlyle. The northwest side is the most Republican-leaning (R+56) and the south side is the least Republican-leaning (R+30), a spread of about 26 points.
Why Carlyle leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Carlyle, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Carlyle votes against the grain of Illinois. Illinois leans Democratic overall, while Carlyle runs about 51 points more Republican. Dense places usually vote Democratic, but Carlyle runs against that pattern.
Paved land cover and Democratic lean
Places with extensive paved surfaces tend to lean Democratic; Carlyle, IL sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in Carlyle looks the way it does
Turnout in Carlyle sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Huey, IL R+54
- Beckemeyer, IL R+52
- Stolletown, IL R+65
- Posey, IL R+55
- Ferrin, IL R+59
- Hoffman, IL R+56
- Bartelso, IL R+61
- Keyesport, IL R+56
- Breese, IL R+53
- Beaver Creek, IL R+61
Cities with Similar Populations
- Apple Valley, OH R+44
- Anthony, FL R+51
- Humboldt, IA R+36
- Stephenson, VA R+19
- Covington, OH R+60
- Aylett, VA R+42
- Molino, FL R+64
- Norwood, NJ Even
- Bellevue, MI R+43
- St. Maries, ID R+59
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Illinois State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.