Chapel Hill leans slightly Republican by roughly 8 points: about 46% of voters vote Democratic and 54% Republican.
About 85% of adults in Chapel Hill typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Chapel Hill, ~39% vote Democratic, ~46% Republican, and ~15% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Chapel Hill compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Chapel Hill leans more Republican than 29 of 47 neighbors.
Chapel Hill runs about 15 points more Democratic than Mississippi as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Chapel Hill. The northwest side runs the most Democratic (D+51) and the northeast side runs the most Republican (R+30), a spread of about 81 points.
Why Chapel Hill leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Chapel Hill, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Car-dependent areas vote Republican. About 86% of residents in Chapel Hill drive to work alone, about 12 points above the U.S. average of 74%.
Paved land cover and Republican lean
Places with little paved surface tend to lean Republican; Chapel Hill, MS sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in Chapel Hill looks the way it does
Homeowners vote more often than renters. About 95% of households in Chapel Hill own their home, about 18 points above the Mississippi average of 77%. Limited routine healthcare access lines up with lower turnout, and Chapel Hill sits in the bottom quarter on routine-care measures. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Carmichael, MS D+24
- Utica, MS D+17
- Learned, MS R+44
- Thompsonville, MS R+14
- Jack, MS D+8
- Reedtown, MS D+40
- Morning Star, MS D+19
- Oakley, MS R+35
- Seven Springs, MS R+41
- Newmans Grove, MS R+64
Cities with Similar Populations
- Lick Creek, KY R+71
- Lakefield, WI R+13
- Echo, NC R+18
- Harlem Springs, OH R+63
- Scotland, IN R+61
- New Glasgow, VA R+38
- Fair Oaks, TX R+73
- Keomah Village, IA R+53
- Jerrys Run, WV R+62
- Mayfield, TX R+71
All Local Stats
Home Services
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Mississippi Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.