Coles County leans Republican by roughly 26 points: about 37% of voters vote Democratic and 63% Republican.
About 67% of adults in Coles County typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Coles County, ~25% vote Democratic, ~42% Republican, and ~33% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Coles County compares
Among counties within 50 miles, Coles County leans more Republican than 3 of 14 neighbors.
Coles County runs about 37 points more Republican than Illinois as a whole. Illinois leans Democratic overall, while Coles County is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Coles County. The northwest side is the most Republican-leaning (R+61) and the southeast side is the least Republican-leaning (R+5), a spread of about 55 points.
Why Coles County leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Coles County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Coles County votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 51%, well above the Illinois average of 33%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here. Coles County runs against the grain of Illinois, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Coles County, IL sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Coles County looks the way it does
Turnout in Coles County sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Cumberland County, IL R+60
- Douglas County, IL R+48
- Moultrie County, IL R+54
- Clark County, IL R+53
- Shelby County, IL R+58
- Edgar County, IL R+50
- Effingham County, IL R+56
- Jasper County, IL R+61
- Piatt County, IL R+35
- Crawford County, IL R+50
Counties with Similar Populations
- Cortland County, NY R+17
- Nelson County, KY R+46
- Barron County, WI R+28
- Campbell County, WY R+65
- Cherokee County, OK R+28
- Bonner County, ID R+44
- Chambers County, TX R+58
- Charlottesville City, VA D+60
- Chenango County, NY R+36
- Clinton County, IA R+21
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Illinois State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.