Dakota County leans Republican by roughly 16 points: about 42% of voters vote Democratic and 58% Republican.
About 58% of adults in Dakota County typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Dakota County, ~24% vote Democratic, ~34% Republican, and ~42% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Dakota County compares
Among counties within 50 miles, Dakota County leans more Republican than 3 of 14 neighbors.
Dakota County runs about 5 points more Democratic than Nebraska as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Dakota County. The northeast side runs the most Democratic (D+6) and the southwest side runs the most Republican (R+56), a spread of about 62 points.
Why Dakota County leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Dakota County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dakota County votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 59%, far above the Nebraska average of 17%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here. Low college attainment predicts Republican voting, and Dakota County sits in the bottom quarter (about 14%, below 90% of counties). A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 69% of households in Dakota County are family households, above 76% of counties.
High-school completion, developed land, and voter turnout
Places that combine low high-school-completion share and a heavily developed built environment tend to turn out at a lower rate, as Dakota County, NE does.
Why turnout in Dakota County looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Dakota County is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 35% of households in Dakota County rent, above 87% of counties. Crowded housing lines up with lower turnout, and about 10% of homes in Dakota County have more than one occupant per room, in the top fraction of counties. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Woodbury County, IA R+9
- Union County, SD R+43
- Dixon County, NE R+56
- Thurston County, NE D+23
- Plymouth County, IA R+49
- Wayne County, NE R+44
- Monona County, IA R+46
- Clay County, SD D+2
- Cuming County, NE R+63
- Burt County, NE R+55
Counties with Similar Populations
- Scott County, VA R+70
- Stutsman County, ND R+34
- Gaines County, TX R+70
- Hertford County, NC D+25
- Minidoka County, ID R+58
- Letcher County, KY R+65
- Hockley County, TX R+63
- Lampasas County, TX R+55
- Grenada County, MS R+15
- McDuffie County, GA R+14
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Nebraska Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.